loris bertolacci

Sport, Health and Fitness

2 weeks above 80% compliancy with Social Distance is key. Evidence from China.

Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy gave a grim time frame for Australians regarding the importance of social distancing. “That’s why they have to be for the long haul. For several months,”

Confusing advice. Yes controls for months but I saw Social Distancing relaxed in Shanghai Wednesday. Controls, yes, as in my case where I flew across Provinces from Kunming to Shanghai so company rule was 2 weeks in a room.

I had a long chat with a guy in ADMIN at the Sports Institute in Chongming yesterday. I showed him pictures of my day in Shanghai where people were mingling and laws about Social Distancing and Masks were relaxed whilst temperature checks were everywhere and obviously people who had Covid19 or were wary did not dare go out coz well might be their last day! Reasonable deterrent. He said that once the virus lockdown occurred in late Jan they basically looked at 2 weeks as being the critical period. Obviously in this society above 80% compliancy (which is needed) was easily achieved. Schools are still shut but businesses like Dentists are re-opening. Sports planning to take off in a month. Context not sure. Business has taken a hammering.


So its tough when you see beach scenes in Melbourne yesterday and chatting to a friend in Italy (Lombardy) who said too many Italians simply do not want to comply still. >20%! The magic figure. He is an economist. He is so frustrated. The research and statistics tell you simply what to do! Its KISS. Keep it simple stupid. And his old dad is a retired doctor and back in hospitals helping so he is spooked. 2 weeks!

SO > 80% compliancy= some normalcy in 2 weeks. FARK ME! Now will this rebound in China? IMO no but obviously history will tell. Lack of herd immunity/release shackles? Who knows. But why not follow this advice and understand they locked it away in Hubei and nailed it in other cities ATM. I was skeptical at first but believe they have. No use blaming them ATM just follow their best practice.

PIC BELOW-This dude said this on March 20th-Not sure if Western countries listened!: “The head of a Chinese Red Cross delegation helping Italy respond to the coronavirus crisis says people aren’t sufficiently adhering to lockdown measures and warns the only way to stop the virus spread is by shutting down all economic activities.”


Armed with my APP saying I was deemed healthy I was allowed to travel an hour into Shanghai by bus/bus/metro/taxis plus go into offices and eat out. Then allowed to come back with my ID into Institute again and mingle with athletes! They must be pretty confident. The athletes will be allowed home again on weekends (as normal) from 2nd week April. They have been in lockdown (but excellent conditions here in Chongming) in Institute since Jan 23rd.

2 weeks of discipline (going for walks in neighbourhood by yourself OR with doggie- go fark yourself-thats not hardship) seems a great price to pay OZ to get a stunning result and show the western world Aussies are the best . Then repair the economy and get working again. And importantly have done some basic Maths and understand the word exponential.


March 28, 2020 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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